Overview

For a few weeks now, I have been thinking about creating a completely fictional outbreak modeling system that could predict virus outbreak based on certain properties in random regions like Nevada, Montreal and Moscow.

I don't really have the time to write this myself as I am busy with writing my Cyber Threat intel course so I don't have the time but I am writing this post because it's just a good exercise to build something like this, you will learn a lot.

Honestly, this may be the best way to learn programming with Python.

Disclaimer

This article presents a fictional and purely theoretical modeling scenario intended for educational and technical exploration only. The content does not reflect any real-world planning, intent, or recommendation to replicate or implement the scenarios described.

All biological and epidemiological references are included solely for academic interest and hypothetical modeling purposes. There is no claim or suggestion that the models presented here are accurate, viable, or appropriate for real-world use.

The author does not advocate, support, or condone the creation, use, or adaptation of any form of biological threat model or vector research outside strictly controlled, ethical, and lawful scientific environments. Any resemblance to public health systems, regional characteristics, or vector behaviors is coincidental and intended solely to make the example accessible to a technically literate audience.

This content must not be interpreted as advice, encouragement, or support for any illegal activity, misuse of scientific data, or public health disruption. Readers are expected to approach this information with maturity, responsibility, and an understanding of dual-use concerns in scientific communication.

Introduction

The development of a fictional Ebola outbreak modeling system presents a unique opportunity to explore the theoretical dynamics of a highly lethal pathogen transmitted through an unconventional vector, such as female horse flies. Ebola virus disease (EVD) is a severe hemorrhagic fever with significant public health implications, making it a compelling subject for epidemiological modeling.

The goal of building this system is to simulate a hypothetical outbreak where female horse flies act as mechanical vectors, predicting the potential spread and impact of Ebola in a region like Nevada. The model relies on understanding Ebola’s virological and epidemiological properties, while advising researchers to gather data on horse flies, other Ebola-carrying animals/insects, and regional characteristics for comparative analysis.

Approach to Creating the Software

The software will be developed in Python, leveraging its scientific computing ecosystem for flexibility and ease of use.

The system must simulate Ebola transmission in Nevada, integrate horse fly vector dynamics, and allow users to input data from comparisons (e.g., biting rates, transmission probabilities). It should produce outputs like outbreak probability and case counts, visualized through graphs and tables. A simple GUI will enhance accessibility for non-technical users.

The first step is to identify whether female horse flies can be used as a vector to carry Ebola:

1. Identify properties of female horse flies
2. Identify what type of diseases female horse flies have been carrying without dying
3. Identify 5 vectors that have been successful in transmitting Ebola
4. Compare properties of Ebola with those 5 vectors to find similarities
5. Identify how plausible it is for horse flies to carry Ebola based on its similarities with the other 5 vectors 

The second step is to figure out whether Ebola can actually survive in a targeted environment:

1. Identity properties of Ebola & in what environments they survive
2. Identify all cities in Nevada along with their environmental properties
3. Identify 5 cities in which Ebola has successfully spread
4. Compare all cities in Nevada to those 5 cities to find similarities
5. Identity the city with the highest number of similarities as the city where an Ebola outbreak could survive

Why female horse flies were chosen?

Female horse flies (Tabanidae family) were selected as the hypothetical vector due to their unique biological dependence on blood meals for egg production, a critical aspect of their reproductive survival.

Unlike other insects, female horse flies actively seek mammalian blood, often persisting despite human deterrence, as noted in anecdotal online reports (Social media) where they aggressively pursue bites. This behavior makes them a pragmatic choice for a vector, as their blood-feeding habit aligns with Ebola’s transmission through bodily fluids, particularly blood.

The speculative premise is that horse flies could mechanically transfer Ebola-contaminated blood from an infected host to a susceptible one via their mouthparts. While it remains unclear whether horse flies naturally transmit blood-borne pathogens to humans in this manner, their frequent host-switching and biting behavior suggest theoretical plausibility, distinguishing them from less aggressive or non-hematophagous insects like common flies.

Conclusion

This may be one of the most interesting programming exercises you would do. It's part mad scientist, part thought-provoking and has a bit of everything to make it an interesting programming project that will teach you more than just what you learned at college last week. 

Anyway, if you ever come to complete this, let me know.